Market Timing (part 2)

Since I'm on vacation with the family this weekend, I thought I'd simply point you to some of the most worthwhile articles I've seen on the subject of long-term market cycles.

First off is a presentation written in 2005 by my first boss and Investmentor. The upshot is that in the long run (10-20 yrs), market cycles are driven by valuation. To position yourself best, non-traditional diversification is key.

Second is a presentation by Contrarian Edge that seconds the notion of valuation being the driver of long-term market cycles, but rather than diversification as a way to cope with this reality, the main focus is market timing based on your own intrinsic view of value.

The last article is a recent post by Crossing Wall Street that essentially makes the point that when evaluating market valuations, one should account for inflation/interest rates and therefore the market may not be as expensive now as many perceive. However, I would simply add that inflation/interest rates are more likely to rise from these current levels than fall, and therefore the conclusion would be the same which is that the market will face tough headwinds for years to come.